US · DATA 1976—2025
100 万，七股三债，机械执行。
把 100 万拆成 70% S&P 500、30% 10 年期美国国债。规则不预测，只在越界后恢复比例。 现在再比较每年末取出或追加 $100,000 会怎样。
70/30
S&P 500 70%10 年期美国国债 30%
Time horizon
选择回看多远
Cash-flow comparison
同样的市场，三种现金流
年化收益统一使用 IRR，纳入初始投入、每年末现金流和期末余额。这样追加与取出策略才能公平比较。
一次投入，不动
$2,483,865- 年化 IRR
- +9.52%
- 累计投入
- $1,000,000
每年末取出 10 万
$884,982- 年化 IRR
- +9.25%
- 累计取出
- $1,000,000
每年末追加 10 万
$4,082,749- 年化 IRR
- +9.66%
- 累计投入
- $2,000,000
Compounding paths
三条资产路径
一次投入，不动每年末取出 10 万每年末追加 10 万
Year by year
每年收益与三种余额
“年度收益”是现金流发生前的组合收益；三列余额均已执行当年末对应现金流。
| 年份 | S&P 500 | 10 年期美国国债 | 年度收益 | 不动余额 | 年取 10 万 | 年投 10 万 | 基础策略动作 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | +9.54% | +0.69% | +6.89% | $1,068,850 | $968,850 | $1,168,850 | 不操作 |
| 2017 | +19.42% | +2.80% | +14.72% | $1,226,217 | $1,011,494 | $1,440,940 | 不操作 |
| 2018 | -6.24% | -0.02% | -4.66% | $1,169,016 | $864,309 | $1,473,722 | 不操作 |
| 2019 | +28.88% | +9.64% | +23.77% | $1,446,894 | $969,758 | $1,924,030 | 恢复 70/30 |
| 2020 | +16.26% | +11.33% | +14.78% | $1,660,759 | $1,013,097 | $2,308,420 | 不操作 |
| 2021 | +26.89% | -4.42% | +17.78% | $1,956,032 | $1,093,220 | $2,818,844 | 恢复 70/30 |
| 2022 | -19.44% | -17.83% | -18.96% | $1,585,227 | $785,978 | $2,384,476 | 不操作 |
| 2023 | +24.23% | +3.88% | +18.04% | $1,871,204 | $827,770 | $2,914,638 | 不操作 |
| 2024 | +23.31% | -1.64% | +16.63% | $2,182,409 | $865,439 | $3,499,380 | 恢复 70/30 |
| 2025 | +16.39% | +7.80% | +13.81% | $2,483,865 | $884,982 | $4,082,749 | 不操作 |
Cash-flow comparison
同样的市场，三种现金流
年化收益统一使用 IRR，纳入初始投入、每年末现金流和期末余额。这样追加与取出策略才能公平比较。
一次投入，不动
$4,299,141- 年化 IRR
- +7.56%
- 累计投入
- $1,000,000
每年末取出 10 万
$0- 年化 IRR
- +4.85%
- 累计取出
- $1,401,666
账户于 2020 年末耗尽
每年末追加 10 万
$9,375,581- 年化 IRR
- +8.10%
- 累计投入
- $3,000,000
Compounding paths
三条资产路径
一次投入，不动每年末取出 10 万每年末追加 10 万
Year by year
每年收益与三种余额
“年度收益”是现金流发生前的组合收益；三列余额均已执行当年末对应现金流。
| 年份 | S&P 500 | 10 年期美国国债 | 年度收益 | 不动余额 | 年取 10 万 | 年投 10 万 | 基础策略动作 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | +13.62% | +1.96% | +10.12% | $1,101,220 | $1,001,220 | $1,201,220 | 不操作 |
| 2007 | +3.53% | +10.21% | +5.39% | $1,160,526 | $955,140 | $1,365,911 | 不操作 |
| 2008 | -38.49% | +20.10% | -21.47% | $911,352 | $650,065 | $1,172,640 | 恢复 70/30 |
| 2009 | +23.45% | -11.12% | +13.08% | $1,030,548 | $635,087 | $1,426,010 | 恢复 70/30 |
| 2010 | +12.78% | +8.46% | +11.48% | $1,148,896 | $608,020 | $1,689,773 | 不操作 |
| 2011 | +0.00% | +16.04% | +4.68% | $1,202,682 | $536,484 | $1,868,879 | 不操作 |
| 2012 | +13.41% | +2.97% | +10.03% | $1,323,339 | $490,306 | $2,156,371 | 不操作 |
| 2013 | +29.60% | -9.10% | +17.88% | $1,559,991 | $477,988 | $2,641,994 | 恢复 70/30 |
| 2014 | +11.39% | +10.75% | +11.20% | $1,734,679 | $431,513 | $3,037,845 | 不操作 |
| 2015 | -0.73% | +1.28% | -0.13% | $1,732,434 | $330,954 | $3,133,913 | 不操作 |
| 2016 | +9.54% | +0.69% | +6.86% | $1,851,250 | $253,652 | $3,448,849 | 不操作 |
| 2017 | +19.42% | +2.80% | +14.67% | $2,122,916 | $190,875 | $4,054,957 | 不操作 |
| 2018 | -6.24% | -0.02% | -4.65% | $2,024,243 | $82,003 | $3,966,483 | 不操作 |
| 2019 | +28.88% | +9.64% | +23.72% | $2,504,322 | $1,451 | $5,007,194 | 恢复 70/30 |
| 2020 | +16.26% | +11.33% | +14.78% | $2,874,486 | $0 | $5,847,307 | 不操作 |
| 2021 | +26.89% | -4.42% | +17.78% | $3,385,553 | $0 | $6,986,924 | 恢复 70/30 |
| 2022 | -19.44% | -17.83% | -18.96% | $2,743,754 | $0 | $5,762,412 | 不操作 |
| 2023 | +24.23% | +3.88% | +18.04% | $3,238,730 | $0 | $6,901,958 | 不操作 |
| 2024 | +23.31% | -1.64% | +16.63% | $3,777,373 | $0 | $8,149,843 | 恢复 70/30 |
| 2025 | +16.39% | +7.80% | +13.81% | $4,299,141 | $0 | $9,375,581 | 不操作 |
Cash-flow comparison
同样的市场，三种现金流
年化收益统一使用 IRR，纳入初始投入、每年末现金流和期末余额。这样追加与取出策略才能公平比较。
一次投入，不动
$61,810,782- 年化 IRR
- +8.60%
- 累计投入
- $1,000,000
每年末取出 10 万
$0- 年化 IRR
- +8.70%
- 累计取出
- $2,448,919
账户于 2000 年末耗尽
每年末追加 10 万
$131,362,033- 年化 IRR
- +8.58%
- 累计投入
- $6,000,000
Compounding paths
三条资产路径
一次投入，不动每年末取出 10 万每年末追加 10 万
Year by year
每年收益与三种余额
“年度收益”是现金流发生前的组合收益；三列余额均已执行当年末对应现金流。
| 年份 | S&P 500 | 10 年期美国国债 | 年度收益 | 不动余额 | 年取 10 万 | 年投 10 万 | 基础策略动作 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1976 | +19.15% | +15.98% | +18.20% | $1,181,990 | $1,081,990 | $1,281,990 | 不操作 |
| 1977 | -11.50% | +1.29% | -7.74% | $1,090,563 | $898,298 | $1,282,828 | 不操作 |
| 1978 | +1.06% | -0.78% | +0.47% | $1,095,638 | $802,478 | $1,388,798 | 不操作 |
| 1979 | +12.31% | +0.67% | +8.60% | $1,189,808 | $771,451 | $1,608,165 | 不操作 |
| 1980 | +25.77% | -2.99% | +17.26% | $1,395,180 | $804,611 | $1,985,749 | 恢复 70/30 |
| 1981 | -9.73% | +8.20% | -4.35% | $1,334,476 | $669,602 | $1,999,349 | 不操作 |
| 1982 | +14.76% | +32.81% | +20.89% | $1,613,189 | $709,453 | $2,516,925 | 恢复 70/30 |
| 1983 | +17.27% | +3.20% | +13.05% | $1,823,694 | $702,029 | $2,945,358 | 不操作 |
| 1984 | +1.40% | +13.73% | +4.78% | $1,910,807 | $635,563 | $3,186,050 | 不操作 |
| 1985 | +26.33% | +25.71% | +26.15% | $2,410,400 | $701,736 | $4,119,065 | 不操作 |
| 1986 | +14.62% | +24.28% | +17.48% | $2,831,779 | $724,411 | $4,939,146 | 不操作 |
| 1987 | +2.03% | -4.96% | -0.16% | $2,827,233 | $623,248 | $5,031,217 | 不操作 |
| 1988 | +12.40% | +8.22% | +11.15% | $3,142,555 | $592,759 | $5,692,351 | 不操作 |
| 1989 | +27.25% | +17.69% | +24.47% | $3,911,643 | $637,827 | $7,185,460 | 不操作 |
| 1990 | -6.56% | +6.24% | -3.04% | $3,792,537 | $518,406 | $7,066,669 | 不操作 |
| 1991 | +26.31% | +15.00% | +22.91% | $4,661,281 | $537,155 | $8,785,406 | 不操作 |
| 1992 | +4.46% | +9.36% | +5.84% | $4,933,482 | $468,523 | $9,398,441 | 不操作 |
| 1993 | +7.06% | +14.21% | +9.14% | $5,384,407 | $411,346 | $10,357,468 | 不操作 |
| 1994 | -1.54% | -8.04% | -3.52% | $5,194,938 | $296,872 | $10,093,005 | 不操作 |
| 1995 | +34.11% | +23.48% | +31.03% | $6,806,694 | $288,977 | $13,324,410 | 不操作 |
| 1996 | +20.26% | +1.43% | +15.11% | $7,835,236 | $232,644 | $15,437,828 | 恢复 70/30 |
| 1997 | +31.01% | +9.94% | +24.69% | $9,769,678 | $190,082 | $19,349,273 | 不操作 |
| 1998 | +26.67% | +14.92% | +23.56% | $12,071,605 | $134,869 | $24,008,341 | 恢复 70/30 |
| 1999 | +19.53% | -8.25% | +11.20% | $13,423,142 | $49,968 | $26,796,315 | 恢复 70/30 |
| 2000 | -10.14% | +16.66% | -2.10% | $13,141,256 | $0 | $26,333,593 | 恢复 70/30 |
| 2001 | -13.04% | +5.57% | -7.46% | $12,161,312 | $0 | $24,469,897 | 不操作 |
| 2002 | -23.37% | +15.12% | -10.20% | $10,921,155 | $0 | $22,074,563 | 恢复 70/30 |
| 2003 | +26.38% | +0.38% | +18.58% | $12,950,305 | $0 | $26,276,017 | 不操作 |
| 2004 | +8.99% | +4.49% | +7.85% | $13,966,542 | $0 | $28,437,949 | 恢复 70/30 |
| 2005 | +3.00% | +2.87% | +2.96% | $14,380,091 | $0 | $29,379,997 | 不操作 |
| 2006 | +13.62% | +1.96% | +10.13% | $15,836,089 | $0 | $32,454,749 | 不操作 |
| 2007 | +3.53% | +10.21% | +5.38% | $16,688,668 | $0 | $34,302,040 | 不操作 |
| 2008 | -38.49% | +20.10% | -21.49% | $13,102,944 | $0 | $27,031,909 | 恢复 70/30 |
| 2009 | +23.45% | -11.12% | +13.08% | $14,816,678 | $0 | $30,667,413 | 恢复 70/30 |
| 2010 | +12.78% | +8.46% | +11.48% | $16,518,225 | $0 | $34,289,258 | 不操作 |
| 2011 | +0.00% | +16.04% | +4.68% | $17,291,522 | $0 | $35,994,501 | 不操作 |
| 2012 | +13.41% | +2.97% | +10.03% | $19,026,265 | $0 | $39,705,590 | 不操作 |
| 2013 | +29.60% | -9.10% | +17.88% | $22,428,726 | $0 | $46,906,129 | 恢复 70/30 |
| 2014 | +11.39% | +10.75% | +11.20% | $24,940,295 | $0 | $52,258,677 | 不操作 |
| 2015 | -0.73% | +1.28% | -0.13% | $24,908,015 | $0 | $52,291,039 | 不操作 |
| 2016 | +9.54% | +0.69% | +6.86% | $26,616,301 | $0 | $55,977,356 | 不操作 |
| 2017 | +19.42% | +2.80% | +14.67% | $30,522,165 | $0 | $64,291,870 | 不操作 |
| 2018 | -6.24% | -0.02% | -4.65% | $29,103,500 | $0 | $61,403,595 | 不操作 |
| 2019 | +28.88% | +9.64% | +23.72% | $36,005,827 | $0 | $76,066,367 | 恢复 70/30 |
| 2020 | +16.26% | +11.33% | +14.78% | $41,327,848 | $0 | $87,409,737 | 不操作 |
| 2021 | +26.89% | -4.42% | +17.78% | $48,675,695 | $0 | $103,050,672 | 恢复 70/30 |
| 2022 | -19.44% | -17.83% | -18.96% | $39,448,244 | $0 | $83,615,356 | 不操作 |
| 2023 | +24.23% | +3.88% | +18.04% | $46,564,747 | $0 | $98,799,652 | 不操作 |
| 2024 | +23.31% | -1.64% | +16.63% | $54,309,070 | $0 | $115,331,318 | 恢复 70/30 |
| 2025 | +16.39% | +7.80% | +13.81% | $61,810,782 | $0 | $131,362,033 | 不操作 |
The dumb rules
不预测，只执行
- 01100 万起步
周期开始时投入 $1,000,000，股票与国债按 70/30 分配。
- 02年底处理现金流
市场收益结算后，按场景不操作、取出或追加 $100,000。
- 03越界才再平衡
现金流处理后检查；股票低于 65% 或达到 75% 时恢复到 70/30。
口径与限制
S&P 500 使用价格收益，不含股息，以便与上证综指保持相同口径；10 年期美国国债使用含票息与价格变化的年度总收益。
模拟忽略交易费、税费、通胀、滑点、基金跟踪误差和汇率变化；允许小数份额交易。取款时若余额不足，只取出剩余资产并标记账户耗尽。现金流按当时组合权重进出，再执行阈值再平衡。
数据来源
- Slickcharts / S&P 500 Return Details ↗1976—2025 年 S&P 500 年度价格收益。
- Aswath Damodaran / Historical Returns ↗1976—2025 年 10 年期美国国债年度总收益。
不是投资建议。历史回测不能代表未来收益；它只回答“如果机械执行这组规则，过去会怎样”。